Dodgers Projected for Lowest Win Total Since 2012
The Dodgers won 111 of their 2022 games, a franchise record. They have a winning percentage of.645 over the past six seasons. That’s equivalent to 104.5 wins in a 162-game year. They have been the best team in baseball for six years.
Los Angeles hasn’t done much this offseason but have they gotten 21 more games worse? FanGraphs and ESPN seem to believe so. Bradford Doolittle ran simulations using FanGraphs’ Steamer projections. The results showed that L.A. would win 89.7 games by 2023.
Even Doolittle was a little skeptical about his projections.
Steamer isn’t excited about J.D. Martinez and Noah Syndergaard make up a surprising ranking for the Dodgers. Why is this surprising? It’s not surprising. The Dodgers’ ability to acquire players at a level that is tier or two higher than the numbers suggests is something the forecasts cannot capture. Players like Syndergaard and Martinez are just two examples. How will Cubs fans react if the Dodgers suddenly make Jason Heyward a feared masher, and for that matter? It doesn’t feel like this has been a good offseason in L.A. However, the offseason is only half over.
The thing about projections is that they are always conservative. Ryan Pepiot’s 3.47 ERA was the 19th-best ERA among the Dodgers last year. Steamer shows Brusdar Grraterol leading the 2023 Dodgers’ with a… 3.47 ERA. Most egregious is Julio Urias’s projected 4.05 ERA. Evan Phillips (3.56) and Tony Gonsolin (4.39) all seem high. Noah Syndergaard (4.84) also seems high. Are we really believing? EverywhereDodgers pitchers will be worse than in 2023almost everyIn 2022, the Dodgers pitcher was? That’s insane to me.
It’s refreshing to finally be the team that the projection systems don’t like. Although it would be absurd to call the Dodgers underdogs by anyone, maybe some bulletin board material would help them.
The author of 5 books, 3 of which are New York Times bestsellers. I’ve been published in more than 100 newspapers and magazines and am a frequent commentator on NPR.